Mortgage rates have been quiet so far this week. That could change now

Mortgage rates were roughly in line with last week’s latest levels at the start of the current week. This means they are quite close to the 4-month lows seen 2 weeks ago, with the average lender able to offer conventional 30-year fixed rates in the low 6% range on upper-level scenarios. .

The past few weeks have been the quietest in over a year. It has more to do with indecision than intention. Market participants are waiting to see what the data says about the next leg of the journey and how the Fed will react to the data.

We will have our final update from the Fed tomorrow where they are almost certain to raise rates less than last time (0.25% instead of 0.50%). Fed Chairman Powell will likely remind the market that the smallest rate hike is not a sign that the Fed is slowing inflation – simply that the fed funds rate is approaching the level where they would like to hold it stable. as long as possible and let the disinflationary vibrations permeate the economic fabric.

Powell’s comments (and the market’s interpretation of them) could lead to high volatility in the bond market that underpins mortgage rates. This volatility could continue Thursday and Friday as other major central banks make their own policy announcements. There are also several important economic reports that could cause traders to reconsider their assessment of the Fed’s likely course of action.

In other words, even after the Fed-induced volatility, traders might find new reasons to buy/sell bonds at an even faster pace, causing rates to move further for better or for worse. worse.